ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
77-84 | Road
2
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
102-59 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Quinn Mathews
#60 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dustin May
#21 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Mathews | 2-3 | 3.65 | 1.38 | 44.1 | 39 |
| Dustin May | 7-9 | 4.67 | 1.32 | 142.2 | 139 |
2-3
W-L
7-9
3.65 Ldr
ERA
4.67
1.38
WHIP
Ldr 1.32
44.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 142.2
39
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 139
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
45%
BREWERS
55%
▲ Edge: +2.80% (STL)
CARDINALS
43%
Book Odds: +134
BREWERS
62%
Book Odds: -163
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
66%
Under 7.5
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3
Milwaukee
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Brewers
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 26, 2026
STL @ MIL
2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
STL @ MIL
4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026
MIL @ STL
8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026
MIL @ STL
1 - 5
Jul 7, 2026
MIL @ STL
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
160
Games Played
160
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.340
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.693
OPS
▲
.743
165
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+104.4% more
Milwaukee: 4.2
vs
St. Louis: 2.1
Hits (L5)
+48.5% more
Milwaukee: 9.3
vs
St. Louis: 6.3
Total Bases (L5)
+16.8% more
Milwaukee: 13.2
vs
St. Louis: 11.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.2% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
St. Louis: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.8
2
MIL Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.3 / 6.3
8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.4
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 11.6
11.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 11.3
14.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.2 / 2.1
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +151 / -184
→
+134 / -163
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-83-0
(48.1%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
101-59-0
(63.1%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.8%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
73-79-8
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
72-84-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
STL
MIL
STL
ML
63%
99-58
53%
84-74
52%
81-76
52%
83-77
ATS
59%
92-65
56%
89-69
48%
76-81
53%
85-75
TTL
41%
61-89-7
45%
67-81-10
51%
76-74-7
50%
75-75-10
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