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CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

85-76  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

68-93  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Tanner Bibee
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Bibee

#28 | Starting Pitcher
@
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tanner Bibee 6-15 4.35 1.22 182.0 142
Michael Wacha 9-9 3.33 1.11 194.1 154
6-15 W-L 9-9
4.35 ERA Ldr 3.33
1.22 WHIP Ldr 1.11
182.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 194.1
142 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 154
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
51%
📊
ROYALS
49%
GUARDIANS 53% Book Odds: -112
ROYALS 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 52.80% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 55%
Under 8.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Kansas City)
GuardiansCLE (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Kansas City Royals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

36.3%

Royals Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CLE By 3-4 runs

17.2%

KC By 1-2 runs

15.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 5
3.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 5
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CLE @ KC 2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026 CLE @ KC 11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026 CLE @ KC 12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 KC @ CLE 1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026 KC @ CLE 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .718
162
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +51.0% more
Cleveland: 5.9 vs Kansas City: 2.9
Errors (L5) +12.7% more
Cleveland: 1.1 vs Kansas City: 1.0
Hits (L5) +39.3% more
Kansas City: 10.7 vs Cleveland: 7.7
Home Runs (L5) +39.3% more
Kansas City: 1.6 vs Cleveland: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 5.2 11
KC Score 3.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.7 / 7.7 10.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.2 0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 6.5 7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 17.4 / 13.1 16.0 / 35.0
Walks 2.9 / 5.9 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +118 → -112 / -108 ↑
69%TICKETS31%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
56%TICKETS44%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8.5 ↑
92%TICKETS8%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
90-80-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
82-87-1
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CLE
KC
CLE
ML
55% 89-72
54% 90-76
56% 90-70
49% 81-86
ATS
57% 91-70
57% 95-71
58% 93-67
58% 97-70
TTL
58% 90-64-7
55% 90-74-2
54% 83-70-7
43% 71-93-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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