Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rangers @ Twins TEX @ MIN

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

80-81  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 4:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

76-85  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Nathan Eovaldi
STARTING PITCHER

Nathan Eovaldi

#17 | Starting Pitcher
@
Bailey Ober
STARTING PITCHER

Bailey Ober

#17 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nathan Eovaldi 11-10 4.27 1.21 141.1 141
Bailey Ober 7-6 4.21 1.26 126.0 91
11-10 W-L 7-6
4.27 ERA Ldr 4.21
1.21 Ldr WHIP 1.26
141.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 126.0
141 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 91
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
55%
📊
TWINS
45%
RANGERS 56% Book Odds: -125
TWINS 49% Book Odds: +104
Book Implied: 55.60% / 49%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 60%
Under 8.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
RangersTEX (-1.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+1.5)
Minnesota Twins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

36.3%

Twins Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TEX By 3-4 runs

17.2%

MIN By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.80
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.80
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Twins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 TEX @ MIN 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 TEX @ MIN 6 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 TEX @ MIN 2 - 10
Jun 18, 2026 MIN @ TEX 9 - 3
Jun 16, 2026 MIN @ TEX 12 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.713
OPS
▲ .720
183
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +12.4% more
Texas: 9.2 vs Minnesota: 8.1
Walks (L5) +9.7% more
Texas: 2.6 vs Minnesota: 2.3
Total Bases (L5) +66.7% more
Minnesota: 14.3 vs Texas: 8.6
Hits (L5) +53.7% more
Minnesota: 9.1 vs Texas: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 5.2 6
MIN Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 5.9 8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 9.2 7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 8.6 14.0 / 23.0
Walks 2.3 / 2.6 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -108 → -125 / +104 ↓
64%TICKETS36%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
61%TICKETS39%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TEX
MIN
TEX
ML
52% 84-78
53% 86-76
50% 80-81
57% 91-70
ATS
59% 95-67
57% 92-70
59% 95-66
61% 98-63
TTL
51% 78-75-9
53% 78-70-14
53% 80-72-9
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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