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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

94-67  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 4:10 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

79-82  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Brent Suter
STARTING PITCHER

Brent Suter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jack Ralston
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Ralston

#79 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brent Suter 3-2 3.48 1.25 88.0 75
Jack Ralston 0-2 4.50 1.25 16.0 17
3-2 W-L 0-2
3.48 Ldr ERA 4.50
1.25 WHIP 1.25
88.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 16.0
75 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 17
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
47%
📊
MARLINS
53%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (MIA)
BRAVES 54% Book Odds: -117
MARLINS 51% Book Odds: -103
Book Implied: 53.90% / 50.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 56%
Under 8.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Miami)
BravesATL (-1.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

36.3%

Marlins Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

ATL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
5.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marlins Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Marlins Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Marlins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 ATL @ MIA 3 - 5
Sep 26, 2026 ATL @ MIA 8 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 ATL @ MIA 0 - 3
Aug 6, 2026 MIA @ ATL 3 - 11
Aug 5, 2026 MIA @ ATL 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Miami MIA
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.757 ▲
OPS
.727
1
Home Runs
▲ 168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16700.0% more
Miami: 168.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5) +55.0% more
Miami: 0.6 vs Atlanta: 0.0
Walks (L5) +44.7% more
Miami: 3.4 vs Atlanta: 2.4
Total Bases (L5) +34.9% more
Miami: 13.4 vs Atlanta: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.8 8
MIA Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 6.5 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 5.7 / 7.0 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 9.9 13.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.4 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -126 / +104 → -117 / -103 ↑
72%TICKETS28%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
76%TICKETS24%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
65%TICKETS35%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ATL
MIA
ATL
ML
48% 78-84
46% 77-90
55% 88-72
54% 90-78
ATS
56% 91-71
57% 96-71
54% 86-74
52% 87-81
TTL
56% 88-69-5
53% 83-73-11
53% 82-73-5
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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