CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
75-86 | Road
5
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
78-83 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rhett Lowder
#25 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trey Yesavage
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder | 6-12 | 6.01 | 1.55 | 127.1 | 101 |
| Trey Yesavage | 5-5 | 3.67 | 1.13 | 95.2 | 94 |
6-12
W-L
5-5
6.01
ERA
Ldr 3.67
1.55
WHIP
Ldr 1.13
127.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
95.2
101 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
94
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
33%
BLUE JAYS
67%
▲ Edge: +4.90% (TOR)
REDS
42%
Book Odds: +138
BLUE JAYS
63%
Book Odds: -167
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
CIN By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
7.8%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Toronto
5.5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Reds
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CIN @ TOR
1 - 5
Sep 26, 2026
CIN @ TOR
5 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
CIN @ TOR
5 - 6
Sep 3, 2025
TOR @ CIN
13 - 9
Sep 2, 2025
TOR @ CIN
12 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.699
▲
OPS
.692
213
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+117.6% more
Toronto: 3.8
vs
Cincinnati: 1.8
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.8%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Toronto: 31.0%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Home Runs (L5)
+77.8% more
Cincinnati: 1.6
vs
Toronto: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.5
5
TOR Score
5.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.4
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 10.1
5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 14.4
7.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.8 / 1.8
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+138 / -167
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CIN
TOR
CIN
ML
46%
74-87
55%
88-71
50%
80-80
49%
79-81
ATS
56%
90-71
54%
86-73
49%
79-81
50%
80-80
TTL
51%
80-76-5
53%
81-73-5
45%
70-85-5
54%
83-72-5
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