PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
81-80 | Road
3
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
76-85 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kirby Yates
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Verlander
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirby Yates | 2-5 | 3.32 | 1.20 | 40.2 | 48 |
| Justin Verlander | 0-1 | 12.27 | 2.18 | 3.2 | 1 |
2-5
W-L
0-1
3.32 Ldr
ERA
12.27
1.20 Ldr
WHIP
2.18
40.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.2
48 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
44%
TIGERS
56%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (DET)
PIRATES
50%
Book Odds: +102
TIGERS
55%
Book Odds: -122
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0
46%
Under 9.0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.2%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5.20
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5.20
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
PIT @ DET
4 - 2
Sep 26, 2026
PIT @ DET
3 - 4
Sep 25, 2026
PIT @ DET
7 - 8
Aug 19, 2026
DET @ PIT
3 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
DET @ PIT
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.734
▲
OPS
.720
186
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+61.3% more
Detroit: 5.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.6
Total Bases (L5)
+30.7% more
Detroit: 14.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.4
Hits (L5)
+26.4% more
Detroit: 9.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.2
Home Runs (L5)
+10.0% more
Detroit: 1.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.5
3
DET Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 7.2
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 9.8
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.9 / 11.4
16.0 / 18.0
Walks
5.8 / 3.6
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -109 / -110
→
+102 / -122
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PIT
DET
PIT
ML
54%
86-73
52%
82-77
54%
87-73
52%
85-78
ATS
64%
101-58
54%
86-73
57%
91-69
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
69-81-9
47%
72-81-6
46%
69-81-10
50%
79-78-6
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