UTAH
MAMMOTHUTA
1-1-1 | Road
4
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
3-0-0 | Home
5
AI Model Win Probability
MAMMOTH
35%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
65%
MAMMOTH
36%
Book Odds: +180
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
69%
Book Odds: -218
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 5.5
67%
Under 5.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
UTAH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around UTA +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)
UTA By 1 goal
9.2%
UTA By 2-3 goals
6.1%
VGK By 1 goal
19.1%
VGK By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
2.5
UTAH
Book Implied: 2
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Utah
4
UTAH
Book Implied: 2
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights
Win
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mammoth
Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mammoth (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Mammoth (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
B
Sim
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
UTA @ VGK
4 - 5
Apr 29, 2026
UTA @ VGK
4 - 5
Apr 24, 2026
VGK @ UTA
2 - 4
Mar 19, 2026
UTA @ VGK
4 - 0
Nov 24, 2025
VGK @ UTA
1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+57.8% more
Utah: 12.6
vs
Vegas: 5.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+46.8%
Utah: 65.3%
vs
Vegas: 18.5%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+33.7% more
Utah: 27.7
vs
Vegas: 18.3
Hits (L5)
+15.5% more
Utah: 29.5
vs
Vegas: 25.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTA Score
2.5
4
VGK Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
5.3 / 12.6
5.0 / 21.0
Faceoff %
18.5 / 65.3
51.6 / 48.4
Hits
25.0 / 29.5
17.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 8.4
25.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
18.3 / 27.7
35.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
3.5 / 4.1
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +164 / -198
→
+180 / -218
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
UTA
VGK
UTA
ML
56%
56-44
54%
47-40
45%
45-55
49%
43-44
ATS
62%
62-38
60%
52-35
47%
47-53
49%
43-44
TTL
56%
53-41-6
47%
39-44-4
100%
100-0
100%
87-0
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