CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
1-1-1 | Road
3
SEATTLE
KRAKENSEA
3-0-0 | Home
4
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
46%
KRAKEN
54%
▲ Edge: +18.50% (CGY)
FLAMES
28%
Book Odds: +260
KRAKEN
77%
Book Odds: -325
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5
58%
Under 5.5
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SEATTLE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around SEA -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
CGY By 1 goal
8.6%
CGY By 2-3 goals
5.5%
SEA By 1 goal
18.9%
SEA By 2-3 goals
34.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Calgary
2.2
CALGARY
Book Implied: 2
Seattle
3.8
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Calgary
4
CALGARY
Book Implied: 2
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Kraken
Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Flames
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Kraken (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
C
Sim
Flames (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CGY @ SEA
3 - 4
Sep 20, 2026
SEA @ CGY
4 - 2
Apr 11, 2026
CGY @ SEA
1 - 4
Jan 5, 2026
SEA @ CGY
5 - 1
Dec 18, 2025
SEA @ CGY
2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+83.7% more
Seattle: 6.5
vs
Calgary: 3.6
Power Play % (L5)
+38.3%
Seattle: 46.6%
vs
Calgary: 8.3%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+37.5% more
Seattle: 11.0
vs
Calgary: 8.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.5%
Calgary: 50.2%
vs
Seattle: 44.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CGY Score
2.2
3
SEA Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.0 / 8.0
11.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
44.6 / 50.2
50.8 / 49.2
Hits
18.9 / 18.1
21.0 / 24.0
Power Play %
46.6 / 8.3
0.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal
27.7 / 26.0
26.0 / 35.0
Takeaways
6.5 / 3.6
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +260 / -325
→
+260 / -325
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
CGY
SEA
CGY
ML
58%
49-35
60%
50-34
54%
45-39
64%
53-30
ATS
68%
57-27
71%
60-24
54%
45-39
64%
53-30
TTL
55%
42-34-8
58%
47-34-3
100%
84-0
99%
82-1
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