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MINNESOTA

WILDMIN

1-1-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

3-0-0  |  Home

2
AI Model Win Probability
WILD
29%
📊
STARS
71%
▲ Edge: +5% (DAL)
WILD 38% Book Odds: +164
STARS 66% Book Odds: -198
Book Implied: 37.90% / 66.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5 59%
Under 5.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DALLAS
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Dallas)
WildMIN (+1.5) 0 StarsDAL (-1.5)
Dallas Stars (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wild Cover

21.2%

Stars Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

MIN By 1 goal

8.6%

MIN By 2-3 goals

5.5%

DAL By 1 goal

18.9%

DAL By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 2
3.8
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 2
3
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Stars Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Stars Win
69% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Stars (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
C
Sim Wild (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 DAL @ MIN 2 - 1
Sep 23, 2026 MIN @ DAL 0 - 2
Apr 30, 2026 DAL @ MIN 2 - 5
Apr 28, 2026 MIN @ DAL 4 - 2
Apr 25, 2026 DAL @ MIN 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +12.2% more
Dallas: 27.7 vs Minnesota: 24.7
Faceoff % (L5) +12.0%
Dallas: 54.1% vs Minnesota: 42.0%
Hits (L5) +22.0% more
Minnesota: 28.8 vs Dallas: 22.4
Takeaways (L5) +19.2% more
Minnesota: 4.1 vs Dallas: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 2.2 0
DAL Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.7 / 15.7 10.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 54.1 / 42.0 35.6 / 64.4
Hits 22.4 / 28.8 16.0 / 17.0
Power Play % 0.0 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 27.7 / 24.7 24.0 / 24.0
Takeaways 3.3 / 4.1 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +164 / -198 → +164 / -198
14%TICKETS86%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
48%TICKETS52%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
67%TICKETS33%
66%MONEY34%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MIN
DAL
MIN
ML
52% 47-43
41% 39-56
55% 49-40
51% 48-47
ATS
67% 60-30
62% 59-36
55% 49-40
48% 46-49
TTL
55% 49-40-1
43% 39-51-5
98% 87-2
98% 93-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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