TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
1-1-1 | Road
4
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
0-1-1 | Home
2
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
54%
SENATORS
46%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
19.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
34.1%
OTT By 1 goal
9.2%
OTT By 2-3 goals
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Ottawa
2.5
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Senators
Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.5
C
Sim
Senators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
A
Sim
o0.0
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
OTT @ TOR
1 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ OTT
4 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ OTT
1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026
TOR @ OTT
2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026
OTT @ TOR
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+99.9% more
Toronto: 18.1
vs
Ottawa: 0.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+47.9%
Toronto: 47.9%
vs
Ottawa: 0.0%
Power Play % (L5)
+27.7%
Toronto: 27.7%
vs
Ottawa: 0.0%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+15.5% more
Toronto: 23.7
vs
Ottawa: 20.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.0
4
OTT Score
2.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
0.0 / 18.1
10.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
0.0 / 47.9
57.1 / 42.9
Hits
25.6 / 25.6
30.0 / 11.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 27.7
0.0 / 40.0
Shots on Goal
20.0 / 23.7
21.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
3.1 / 3.2
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
TOR
OTT
TOR
ML
56%
50-39
50%
43-43
54%
48-41
55%
46-37
ATS
61%
54-35
63%
54-32
55%
49-40
55%
46-37
TTL
52%
46-42-1
52%
43-40-3
99%
86-1
100%
79-0
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