VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
2-0-0 | Road
2
SAN JOSE
SHARKSSJ
0-1-1 | Home
1
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
74%
SHARKS
26%
▲ Edge: +33.50% (VGK)
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
41%
Book Odds: +145
SHARKS
64%
Book Odds: -175
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 5.5
67%
Under 5.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
VEGAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VGK -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
VGK By 1 goal
19.1%
VGK By 2-3 goals
34.1%
SJ By 1 goal
9.2%
SJ By 2-3 goals
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Book Implied: 2
San Jose
2.5
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Book Implied: 2
San Jose
3
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights
Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim
Sharks
Loss
69% Win Prob
D
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Golden Knights (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.5
B
Sim
Golden Knights (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
A
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 22, 2026
VGK @ SJ
2 - 1
Jan 11, 2026
VGK @ SJ
7 - 2
Dec 23, 2025
SJ @ VGK
2 - 7
Nov 29, 2025
SJ @ VGK
3 - 4
Oct 9, 2025
VGK @ SJ
4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+40.0% more
Vegas: 25.4
vs
San Jose: 15.3
Blocked Shots (L5)
+1201.0% more
San Jose: 12.0
vs
Vegas: 0.0
Takeaways (L5)
+71.1% more
San Jose: 3.9
vs
Vegas: 2.3
Shots on Goal (L5)
+43.8% more
San Jose: 23.0
vs
Vegas: 16.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
4.0
2
SJ Score
2.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.0 / 0.0
14.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
41.7 / 0.0
44.6 / 55.4
Hits
15.3 / 25.4
30.0 / 24.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 0.0
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.0 / 16.0
29.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
3.9 / 2.3
9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -180
→
+145 / -175
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJ
VGK
SJ
VGK
ML
49%
43-44
56%
56-44
52%
45-42
45%
45-55
ATS
71%
62-25
62%
62-38
52%
45-42
47%
47-53
TTL
45%
38-46-3
56%
53-41-6
98%
85-2
100%
100-0
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