TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
1-0-1 | Road
2
NASHVILLE
PREDATORSNSH
1-1-0 | Home
3
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
70%
PREDATORS
30%
▲ Edge: +34.40% (TB)
LIGHTNING
36%
Book Odds: +180
PREDATORS
69%
Book Odds: -218
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 5.5
67%
Under 5.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TB -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1 goal
19.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
34.1%
NSH By 1 goal
9.2%
NSH By 2-3 goals
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2
Nashville
2.5
NASHVILLE
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2
Nashville
4
NASHVILLE
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lightning
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Predators
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lightning (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.5
A
Sim
Lightning (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
B
Sim
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 22, 2026
TB @ NSH
2 - 3
Sep 20, 2026
NSH @ TB
1 - 2
Mar 29, 2026
NSH @ TB
2 - 3
Oct 28, 2025
TB @ NSH
5 - 2
Sep 27, 2025
NSH @ TB
1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+40.7% more
Tampa Bay: 22.0
vs
Nashville: 13.0
Hits (L5)
+33.2% more
Tampa Bay: 25.9
vs
Nashville: 17.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+30.0%
Tampa Bay: 65.0%
vs
Nashville: 35.0%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+156.7% more
Nashville: 18.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.0
2
NSH Score
2.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.0 / 7.0
11.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
35.0 / 65.0
43.8 / 56.3
Hits
17.3 / 25.9
28.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
1.0 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
13.0 / 22.0
26.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
5.2 / 5.3
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +180 / -218
→
+180 / -218
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NSH
TB
NSH
TB
ML
55%
46-38
44%
41-52
55%
46-38
55%
51-42
ATS
62%
52-32
63%
59-34
54%
45-39
54%
50-43
TTL
54%
44-37-3
47%
41-47-5
98%
82-2
98%
91-2
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