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NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

1-1-0  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

RANGERSNYR

0-2-0  |  Home

3
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
37%
📊
RANGERS
63%
▲ Edge: +6.90% (NYR)
ISLANDERS 49% Book Odds: +105
RANGERS 56% Book Odds: -125
Book Implied: 48.80% / 55.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5 58%
Under 5.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New York)
IslandersNYI (+1.5) 0 RangersNYR (-1.5)
New York Rangers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Islanders Cover

21.2%

Rangers Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYR -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYR)

NYI By 1 goal

8.6%

NYI By 2-3 goals

5.5%

NYR By 1 goal

18.9%

NYR By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
3.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 22, 2026 NYI @ NYR 4 - 3
Jan 29, 2026 NYI @ NYR 2 - 1
Jan 28, 2026 NYR @ NYI 2 - 5
Dec 27, 2025 NYR @ NYI 0 - 2
Nov 8, 2025 NYI @ NYR 5 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5) +28.9%
New York: 58.7% vs New York: 29.8%
Takeaways (L5) +26.2% more
New York: 4.5 vs New York: 3.6
Hits (L5) +17.1% more
New York: 25.4 vs New York: 21.7
Shots on Goal (L5) +24.9% more
New York: 24.0 vs New York: 18.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYI Score 2.2 4
NYR Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.0 / 17.0 11.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 58.7 / 29.8 51.0 / 49.0
Hits 25.4 / 21.7 31.0 / 22.0
Power Play % 0.2 / 25.0 0.0 / 60.0
Shots on Goal 18.0 / 24.0 19.0 / 28.0
Takeaways 4.5 / 3.6 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → +105 / -125
6%TICKETS94%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
86%TICKETS14%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
20%TICKETS80%
37%MONEY63%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
NYI
NYR
NYI
ML
55% 47-38
46% 39-45
45% 38-47
46% 39-45
ATS
52% 44-41
63% 53-31
45% 38-47
46% 39-45
TTL
53% 43-38-4
54% 45-38-1
99% 84-1
99% 83-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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