SEATTLE
KRAKENSEA
2-0-0 | Road
4
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
0-1-0 | Home
2
AI Model Win Probability
KRAKEN
43%
FLAMES
57%
KRAKEN
46%
Book Odds: +120
FLAMES
59%
Book Odds: -142
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5
59%
Under 5.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
CALGARY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Calgary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CGY -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)
SEA By 1 goal
8.6%
SEA By 2-3 goals
5.5%
CGY By 1 goal
18.9%
CGY By 2-3 goals
34.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
2.2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 2
Calgary
3.8
CALGARY
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Seattle
2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 2
Calgary
4
CALGARY
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flames
Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Flames
Loss
84% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flames (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
C
Sim
Flames (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Sim
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CGY @ SEA
3 - 4
Sep 20, 2026
SEA @ CGY
4 - 2
Apr 11, 2026
CGY @ SEA
1 - 4
Jan 5, 2026
SEA @ CGY
5 - 1
Dec 18, 2025
SEA @ CGY
2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+63.1% more
Calgary: 13.1
vs
Seattle: 8.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+16.2%
Calgary: 59.1%
vs
Seattle: 42.9%
Power Play % (L5)
+48.8%
Seattle: 49.9%
vs
Calgary: 1.2%
Hits (L5)
+29.8% more
Seattle: 20.4
vs
Calgary: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
2.2
4
CGY Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.1 / 8.0
10.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
59.1 / 42.9
51.9 / 48.1
Hits
14.3 / 20.4
32.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
1.2 / 49.9
0.0 / 40.0
Shots on Goal
27.1 / 30.0
24.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 5.3
4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -148
→
+120 / -142
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
SEA
CGY
SEA
ML
60%
51-34
59%
50-35
63%
53-31
53%
45-40
ATS
71%
60-25
67%
57-28
64%
54-30
54%
46-39
TTL
59%
48-34-3
56%
43-34-8
99%
83-1
100%
85-0
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