UTAH
MAMMOTHUTA
0-1-0 | Road
1
COLORADO
AVALANCHECOL
1-0-0 | Home
4
AI Model Win Probability
MAMMOTH
23%
AVALANCHE
77%
▲ Edge: +13.60% (COL)
MAMMOTH
41%
Book Odds: +145
AVALANCHE
64%
Book Odds: -175
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5
50%
Under 6.5
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
UTAH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around UTA +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)
UTA By 1 goal
9.2%
UTA By 2-3 goals
6.1%
COL By 1 goal
19.1%
COL By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
2.5
UTAH
Book Implied: 2.50
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Utah
2
UTAH
Book Implied: 2.50
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Avalanche
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim
Avalanche
Win
84% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mammoth (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
B
Sim
Avalanche (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
UTA @ COL
1 - 4
Feb 25, 2026
COL @ UTA
4 - 2
Dec 23, 2025
UTA @ COL
0 - 1
Oct 21, 2025
COL @ UTA
3 - 4
Oct 9, 2025
UTA @ COL
1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+86.9% more
Colorado: 9.8
vs
Utah: 5.3
Shots on Goal (L5)
+39.8% more
Colorado: 30.8
vs
Utah: 22.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.5%
Colorado: 53.4%
vs
Utah: 51.0%
Takeaways (L5)
+39.6% more
Utah: 5.9
vs
Colorado: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTA Score
2.5
1
COL Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
9.8 / 5.3
3.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
53.4 / 51.0
30.6 / 69.4
Hits
26.5 / 32.2
17.0 / 28.0
Power Play %
0.6 / 33.0
20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.8 / 22.0
17.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
3.6 / 5.9
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +145 / -175
→
+145 / -175
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
UTA
COL
UTA
ML
57%
54-40
53%
46-40
46%
43-51
50%
43-43
ATS
64%
60-34
60%
52-34
46%
43-51
49%
42-44
TTL
53%
47-42-5
46%
38-44-4
100%
94-0
100%
86-0
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