NASHVILLE
PREDATORSNSH
0-1-0 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
1-0-0 | Home
2
AI Model Win Probability
PREDATORS
24%
LIGHTNING
76%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (TB)
PREDATORS
30%
Book Odds: +230
LIGHTNING
74%
Book Odds: -285
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 5.5
68%
Under 5.5
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NASHVILLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NSH +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NSH)
NSH By 1 goal
9.2%
NSH By 2-3 goals
6.1%
TB By 1 goal
19.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Nashville
2.5
NASHVILLE
Book Implied: 2
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Nashville
2
NASHVILLE
Book Implied: 2
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lightning
Win
76% Win Prob
A
Sim
Lightning
Win
84% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Predators (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Lightning (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
A
Sim
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 22, 2026
TB @ NSH
2 - 3
Sep 20, 2026
NSH @ TB
1 - 2
Mar 29, 2026
NSH @ TB
2 - 3
Oct 28, 2025
TB @ NSH
5 - 2
Sep 27, 2025
NSH @ TB
1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+96.7% more
Tampa Bay: 30.4
vs
Nashville: 15.4
Blocked Shots (L5)
+41.6% more
Tampa Bay: 12.9
vs
Nashville: 9.1
Power Play % (L5)
+29.2%
Tampa Bay: 31.5%
vs
Nashville: 2.2%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+21.6% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2
vs
Nashville: 27.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NSH Score
2.5
1
TB Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.9 / 9.1
7.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
49.8 / 43.0
65.0 / 35.0
Hits
30.4 / 15.4
17.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
3148.0 / 224.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
33.2 / 27.3
22.0 / 13.0
Takeaways
5.0 / 4.7
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +230 / -285
→
+230 / -285
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NSH
TB
NSH
ML
44%
41-52
55%
46-38
55%
51-42
55%
46-38
ATS
63%
59-34
62%
52-32
54%
50-43
54%
45-39
TTL
47%
41-47-5
54%
44-37-3
98%
91-2
98%
82-2
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