DALLAS
STARSDAL
1-0-0 | Road
2
ST. LOUIS
BLUESSTL
0-1-0 | Home
1
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
68%
BLUES
32%
▲ Edge: +20.20% (DAL)
STARS
48%
Book Odds: +110
BLUES
57%
Book Odds: -130
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
Over 5.5
49%
Under 5.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1 goal
19.1%
DAL By 2-3 goals
34.1%
STL By 1 goal
9.2%
STL By 2-3 goals
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3.5
DALLAS
Book Implied: 2
St. Louis
2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Dallas
4
DALLAS
Book Implied: 2
St. Louis
2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Stars
Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Stars
Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Stars (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.5
A
Sim
Stars (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 21, 2026
STL @ DAL
1 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
DAL @ STL
2 - 1
Feb 4, 2026
STL @ DAL
4 - 5
Jan 27, 2026
DAL @ STL
4 - 3
Jan 23, 2026
STL @ DAL
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+60.9% more
Dallas: 16.1
vs
St. Louis: 6.3
Hits (L5)
+35.8% more
Dallas: 27.2
vs
St. Louis: 17.5
Faceoff % (L5)
+14.6%
Dallas: 49.3%
vs
St. Louis: 34.7%
Takeaways (L5)
+13.4% more
St. Louis: 4.5
vs
Dallas: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.5
2
STL Score
2.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
6.3 / 16.1
11.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
34.7 / 49.3
48.9 / 51.1
Hits
17.5 / 27.2
29.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
142.0 / 158.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.8 / 29.9
24.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 4.0
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130
→
+110 / -130
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
DAL
STL
DAL
ML
54%
45-38
52%
47-43
54%
45-38
55%
49-40
ATS
64%
53-30
67%
60-30
55%
46-37
55%
49-40
TTL
63%
51-30-2
55%
49-40-1
98%
81-2
98%
87-2
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