TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
0-0-1 | Road
3
MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
1-0-0 | Home
4
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
62%
CANADIENS
38%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
CANADIENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
19.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
34.1%
MTL By 1 goal
9.2%
MTL By 2-3 goals
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Montreal
2.5
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
65% Win Prob
D
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.5
B
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
A
Sim
o0.0
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 19, 2026
TOR @ MTL
3 - 4
Sep 19, 2026
MTL @ TOR
4 - 1
Mar 10, 2026
TOR @ MTL
1 - 3
Dec 6, 2025
MTL @ TOR
2 - 1
Nov 22, 2025
TOR @ MTL
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+27.1% more
Toronto: 15.1
vs
Montreal: 11.0
Power Play % (L5)
+16.6%
Toronto: 16.6%
vs
Montreal: 0.0%
Hits (L5)
+14.3% more
Toronto: 25.9
vs
Montreal: 22.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+16.0% more
Montreal: 29.0
vs
Toronto: 25.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.0
3
MTL Score
2.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.0 / 15.1
5.0 / 24.0
Faceoff %
54.5 / 45.6
47.4 / 52.6
Hits
22.2 / 25.9
43.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 16.6
50.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
29.0 / 25.0
30.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
3.6 / 3.3
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
TOR
MTL
TOR
ML
45%
47-57
50%
43-43
44%
45-58
55%
46-37
ATS
66%
69-35
63%
54-32
45%
46-57
55%
46-37
TTL
49%
49-50-5
52%
43-40-3
99%
100-1
100%
79-0
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