MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
1-0-0 | Road
4
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
0-1-0 | Home
1
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
30%
MAPLE LEAFS
70%
CANADIENS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
MTL By 1 goal
9.2%
MTL By 2-3 goals
6.1%
TOR By 1 goal
19.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
2.5
MONTREAL
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
65% Win Prob
D
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.5
A
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
A
Sim
o0.0
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 19, 2026
TOR @ MTL
3 - 4
Sep 19, 2026
MTL @ TOR
4 - 1
Mar 10, 2026
TOR @ MTL
1 - 3
Dec 6, 2025
MTL @ TOR
2 - 1
Nov 22, 2025
TOR @ MTL
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+40.8% more
Toronto: 27.6
vs
Montreal: 19.6
Hits (L5)
+18.9% more
Toronto: 25.3
vs
Montreal: 21.3
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.3% more
Montreal: 29.7
vs
Toronto: 26.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
2.5
4
TOR Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
27.6 / 19.6
15.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
52.8 / 52.9
45.5 / 54.5
Hits
25.3 / 21.3
27.0 / 24.0
Power Play %
1.3 / 2.2
16.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.1 / 29.7
25.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
3.5 / 3.4
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MTL
TOR
MTL
ML
50%
43-43
45%
47-57
55%
46-37
44%
45-58
ATS
63%
54-32
66%
69-35
55%
46-37
45%
46-57
TTL
52%
43-40-3
49%
49-50-5
100%
79-0
99%
100-1
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