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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

79-81  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Sep 25 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

64-96  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Brown
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Brown

#58 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jacob Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Lopez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Brown 6-3 3.26 1.27 102.0 120
Jacob Lopez 6-5 5.68 1.53 117.1 108
6-3 W-L 6-5
3.26 Ldr ERA 5.68
1.27 Ldr WHIP 1.53
102.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 117.1
120 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 108
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
60%
📊
ATHLETICS
40%
▲ Edge: +1.80% (ATH)
ASTROS 66% Book Odds: -197
ATHLETICS 38% Book Odds: +162
Book Implied: 66.30% / 38.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0 50%
Under 9.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
AstrosHOU (-1.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+1.5)
Athletics (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

36.3%

Athletics Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.7%

HOU By 3-4 runs

17.2%

ATH By 1-2 runs

15.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Athletics Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 HOU @ ATH 9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026 HOU @ ATH 13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 HOU @ ATH 5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026 HOU @ ATH 7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026 ATH @ HOU 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.582
OPS
▲ .719
4
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +38.7% more
Houston: 2.8 vs Athletics: 1.7
Strikeouts (L5) +13.2% more
Houston: 10.2 vs Athletics: 8.9
Home Runs (Season) +4750.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +43.7% more
Athletics: 4.3 vs Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 5.2 5
ATH Score 3.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.2 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.7 / 9.7 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 2.8 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 10.2 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 19.2 / 19.9 10.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.7 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -163 / +135 → -197 / +162 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
83%TICKETS17%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: 11 → 9 ↓
96%TICKETS4%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
HOU
ATH
HOU
ML
59% 95-67
50% 81-82
54% 87-74
47% 77-87
ATS
52% 84-78
56% 91-72
50% 81-80
55% 90-74
TTL
54% 84-73-5
45% 70-84-9
42% 66-90-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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