ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
86-74 | Road
11
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
89-71 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Casey Mize
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | 7-3 | 3.72 | 1.17 | 128.1 | 87 |
| Casey Mize | 6-9 | 3.96 | 1.19 | 127.1 | 109 |
7-3
W-L
6-9
3.72 Ldr
ERA
3.96
1.17 Ldr
WHIP
1.19
128.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
127.1
87
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 109
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
30%
PADRES
70%
▲ Edge: +13% (SD)
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
Book Odds: +111
PADRES
57%
Book Odds: -133
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 7.5
61%
Under 7.5
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
ARI By 1-2 runs
13.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
7.8%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3.2
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3
San Diego
5.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Padres
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.720
OPS
▲
.925
166
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.7% more
San Diego: 10.3
vs
Arizona: 7.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.6% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Arizona: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.2
11
SD Score
5.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 12.4
10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.8
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 7.6
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 21.5
11.0 / 20.0
Walks
2.3 / 2.9
2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -142
→
+111 / -133
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ARI
SD
ARI
ML
51%
85-83
54%
87-74
51%
85-82
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
91-70
55%
92-75
56%
89-71
TTL
51%
82-80-6
52%
80-73-8
54%
86-74-6
49%
73-77-9
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