TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
79-81 | Road
2
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
76-84 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Joe Ryan
#41 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 11-10 | 3.86 | 1.10 | 158.2 | 196 |
| Joe Ryan | 6-10 | 3.83 | 1.18 | 138.2 | 151 |
11-10
W-L
6-10
3.86
ERA
Ldr 3.83
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.18
158.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
138.2
196 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
151
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
53%
TWINS
47%
RANGERS
56%
Book Odds: -126
TWINS
49%
Book Odds: +105
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
17.2%
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
5.2
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.20
Minnesota
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Texas
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.20
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
TEX @ MIN
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
TEX @ MIN
6 - 2
Sep 25, 2026
TEX @ MIN
2 - 10
Jun 18, 2026
MIN @ TEX
9 - 3
Jun 16, 2026
MIN @ TEX
12 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.713
OPS
▲
.720
183
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+30.7% more
Texas: 2.9
vs
Minnesota: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.8% more
Texas: 8.8
vs
Minnesota: 7.6
Errors (L5)
+11.0% more
Texas: 0.4
vs
Minnesota: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+38.4% more
Minnesota: 13.0
vs
Texas: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
5.2
2
MIN Score
3.8
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 5.8
11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.8
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 9.4
17.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.9
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110
→
-126 / +105
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TEX
MIN
TEX
ML
52%
84-78
53%
86-76
50%
80-81
57%
91-70
ATS
59%
95-67
57%
92-70
59%
95-66
61%
98-63
TTL
51%
78-75-9
53%
78-70-14
53%
80-72-9
55%
81-66-14
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