ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
77-83 | Road
4
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
101-59 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Robert Gasser
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | 7-9 | 3.84 | 1.25 | 164.0 | 113 |
| Robert Gasser | 5-5 | 4.01 | 1.24 | 103.1 | 94 |
7-9
W-L
5-5
3.84 Ldr
ERA
4.01
1.25
WHIP
Ldr 1.24
164.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
103.1
113 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
94
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
48%
BREWERS
52%
▲ Edge: +9% (STL)
CARDINALS
39%
Book Odds: +158
BREWERS
66%
Book Odds: -193
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
60%
Under 7.5
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3
Milwaukee
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
STL @ MIL
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
STL @ MIL
2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
STL @ MIL
4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026
MIL @ STL
8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026
MIL @ STL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.691
OPS
▲
.743
167
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+47.5% more
Milwaukee: 3.8
vs
St. Louis: 2.6
Home Runs (L5)
+35.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.0
vs
St. Louis: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+29.9% more
Milwaukee: 12.3
vs
St. Louis: 9.5
Hits (L5)
+24.5% more
Milwaukee: 8.0
vs
St. Louis: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.8
4
MIL Score
5.2
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.0 / 6.4
12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.7
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
12.1 / 11.4
5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.3 / 9.5
15.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.6
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +151 / -184
→
+158 / -193
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
110-60-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
(53.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
76-89-5
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
STL
MIL
STL
ML
61%
101-65
53%
85-74
52%
86-80
52%
84-77
ATS
57%
94-72
56%
89-70
49%
81-85
53%
85-76
TTL
41%
65-93-8
46%
68-81-10
51%
80-78-8
50%
76-75-10
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