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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

57-103  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

83-77  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Tomoyuki Sugano
STARTING PITCHER

Tomoyuki Sugano

#11 | Starting Pitcher
@
Sean Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Burke

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tomoyuki Sugano 12-11 5.36 1.33 147.2 91
Sean Burke 10-7 3.40 1.20 167.0 178
12-11 W-L 10-7
5.36 ERA Ldr 3.40
1.33 WHIP Ldr 1.20
147.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 167.0
91 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 178
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
29%
📊
WHITE SOX
71%
ROCKIES 33% Book Odds: +199
WHITE SOX 71% Book Odds: -247
Book Implied: 33.40% / 71.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 8.5 44%
Under 8.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Chicago)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 White SoxCHW (-1.5)
Chicago White Sox (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

30.9%

White Sox Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

COL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.2
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI White Sox Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim White Sox Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI White Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 COL @ CHW 2 - 4
Sep 26, 2026 COL @ CHW 9 - 6
Sep 25, 2026 COL @ CHW 1 - 6
Jul 6, 2025 CHW @ COL 4 - 6
Jul 5, 2025 CHW @ COL 10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.412
.739
OPS
▲ .826
180 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +163.7% more
Chicago: 4.5 vs Colorado: 1.7
Runs per Game (Season) +29.3% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Colorado: 4.6
Strikeouts (L5) +24.8% more
Chicago: 10.0 vs Colorado: 8.0
On-Base Pct (Season) +9.3%
Chicago: 41.5% vs Colorado: 32.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.2 1
CHW Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.1 / 10.2 10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.0 / 8.0 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 15.5 / 17.2 16.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.5 / 1.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +181 / -222 → +199 / -247 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
11%TICKETS89%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
96%TICKETS4%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
COL
CHW
COL
ML
49% 81-86
60% 97-64
56% 94-73
55% 88-73
ATS
59% 99-68
60% 97-64
56% 93-74
52% 83-78
TTL
58% 96-69-2
60% 93-62-6
51% 84-81-2
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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