CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
84-76 | Road
12
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
68-92 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Noah Cameron
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | 14-8 | 3.63 | 1.08 | 181.0 | 244 |
| Noah Cameron | 9-8 | 3.92 | 1.20 | 172.1 | 155 |
14-8
W-L
9-8
3.63 Ldr
ERA
3.92
1.08 Ldr
WHIP
1.20
181.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
172.1
244 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
155
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
50%
ROYALS
50%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (KC)
GUARDIANS
59%
Book Odds: -145
ROYALS
46%
Book Odds: +120
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
CLE By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
9.5%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
KC By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.8
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Kansas City
5.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CLE @ KC
2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026
CLE @ KC
11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026
CLE @ KC
12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
KC @ CLE
1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026
KC @ CLE
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.718
162
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+44.9% more
Kansas City: 14.7
vs
Cleveland: 10.1
Hits (L5)
+36.0% more
Kansas City: 9.5
vs
Cleveland: 7.0
Errors (L5)
+29.0% more
Kansas City: 0.9
vs
Cleveland: 0.7
Home Runs (L5)
+19.0% more
Kansas City: 1.0
vs
Cleveland: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.8
12
KC Score
5.2
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.5 / 7.0
13.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 8.3
6.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 10.1
23.0 / 19.0
Walks
1.9 / 2.4
5.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +108
→
-145 / +120
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
90-80-0
(52.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
82-87-1
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +0.5
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CLE
KC
CLE
ML
55%
89-72
54%
90-76
56%
90-70
49%
81-86
ATS
57%
91-70
57%
95-71
58%
93-67
58%
97-70
TTL
58%
90-64-7
55%
90-74-2
54%
83-70-7
43%
71-93-2
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