Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Red Sox CHC @ BOS

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

88-73  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Sep 25 • 5:30 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

87-74  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
David Peterson
STARTING PITCHER

David Peterson

#19 | Starting Pitcher
@
Brayan Bello
STARTING PITCHER

Brayan Bello

#66 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Peterson 9-8 4.96 1.51 143.1 131
Brayan Bello 6-7 4.49 1.37 112.1 90
9-8 W-L 6-7
4.96 ERA Ldr 4.49
1.51 WHIP Ldr 1.37
143.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 112.1
131 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 90
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
49%
📊
RED SOX
51%
▲ Edge: +1% (BOS)
CUBS 55% Book Odds: -121
RED SOX 50% Book Odds: +100
Book Implied: 54.80% / 50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 6.5 72%
Under 6.5 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Boston)
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+1.5)
Boston Red Sox (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

36.3%

Red Sox Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

CHC By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CHC By 3-4 runs

9.5%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
5.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CHC @ BOS 6 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 CHC @ BOS 0 - 2
Jul 20, 2025 BOS @ CHC 6 - 1
Jul 19, 2025 BOS @ CHC 0 - 6
Jul 18, 2025 BOS @ CHC 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Boston BOS
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 1.00
.129 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.229 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .250
.374
OPS
▲ .409
0
Home Runs
▲ 2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +50.0% more
Boston: 1.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +24.6% more
Boston: 10.6 vs Chicago: 8.5
Slugging Pct (Season) +10.5%
Boston: 25.0% vs Chicago: 14.5%
OPS (Season) +3.5%
Boston: 40.9% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 3.8 0
BOS Score 5.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 7.8 4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 8.5 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 9.0 / 12.6 5.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.9 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -123 / +102 → -121 / +100
58%TICKETS42%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
43%TICKETS57%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
78%TICKETS22%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CHC
BOS
CHC
ML
50% 80-80
58% 93-68
47% 76-87
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 93-67
61% 97-63-1
48% 79-84
47% 75-85-1
TTL
46% 72-83-5
52% 81-74-6
47% 74-83-6
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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