ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
93-67 | Road
0
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
79-81 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ray Kerr
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eury Perez
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Kerr | 0-0 | 1.76 | 0.52 | 15.1 | 11 |
| Eury Perez | 7-11 | 4.14 | 1.27 | 150.0 | 162 |
0-0
W-L
7-11
1.76 Ldr
ERA
4.14
0.52 Ldr
WHIP
1.27
15.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 150.0
11
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 162
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
48%
MARLINS
52%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (MIA)
BRAVES
54%
Book Odds: -117
MARLINS
51%
Book Odds: -103
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Miami
5.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ATL @ MIA
3 - 5
Sep 26, 2026
ATL @ MIA
8 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
ATL @ MIA
0 - 3
Aug 6, 2026
MIA @ ATL
3 - 11
Aug 5, 2026
MIA @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Miami
MIA
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.757
▲
OPS
.727
1
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16700.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Miami: 0.3
vs
Atlanta: 0.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.1% more
Miami: 8.0
vs
Atlanta: 6.5
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.6%
Miami: 24.9%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.8
0
MIA Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 9.2
10.0 / 1.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 6.5
1.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 14.4
18.0 / 1.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.1
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +104
→
-117 / -103
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ATL
MIA
ATL
ML
48%
78-84
46%
77-90
55%
88-72
54%
90-78
ATS
56%
91-71
57%
96-71
54%
86-74
52%
87-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
53%
83-73-11
53%
82-73-5
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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