Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Blue Jays CIN @ TOR

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

74-86  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

78-82  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Nick Lodolo
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Lodolo

#40 | SP
@
Jose Soriano
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Soriano

#40 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nick Lodolo 3-6 5.04 1.47 103.2 80
Jose Soriano 12-8 3.72 1.26 174.1 167
3-6 W-L 12-8
5.04 ERA Ldr 3.72
1.47 WHIP Ldr 1.26
103.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 174.1
80 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 167
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
36%
📊
BLUE JAYS
64%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (TOR)
REDS 43% Book Odds: +133
BLUE JAYS 62% Book Odds: -161
Book Implied: 42.90% / 61.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 65%
Under 7.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (+1.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (-1.5)
Cincinnati Reds (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

63.7%

Blue Jays Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.5%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3
5.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Blue Jays Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Reds Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 CIN @ TOR 5 - 6
Sep 3, 2025 TOR @ CIN 13 - 9
Sep 2, 2025 TOR @ CIN 12 - 9
Sep 1, 2025 TOR @ CIN 4 - 5
Aug 21, 2024 CIN @ TOR 11 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Toronto TOR
159
Games Played
▲ 160
4.12 ▲
Runs / Game
4.01
.228
Avg (AVG)
▲ .248
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .311
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.382
.700 ▲
OPS
.693
211 ▲
Home Runs
150
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +50.0% more
Toronto: 0.7 vs Cincinnati: 0.2
Hits (L5) +26.0% more
Toronto: 8.3 vs Cincinnati: 6.6
Walks (L5) +20.6% more
Toronto: 2.6 vs Cincinnati: 2.1
Batting Avg (Season) +2.0%
Toronto: 24.8% vs Cincinnati: 22.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.8 5
TOR Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.3 / 6.6 10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 1.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 4.9 / 9.6 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 13.6 15.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.6 / 2.1 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136 → +133 / -161 ↑
30%TICKETS70%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
36%TICKETS64%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
96%TICKETS4%
98%MONEY2%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
74-85-0 (46.5%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
77-82-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
TOR
(47.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
83-72-4
O: 53.6% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
80-74-5
O: 51.9% / U: 48.1% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CIN
TOR
CIN
ML
46% 73-86
55% 87-70
50% 79-79
49% 78-80
ATS
57% 90-69
55% 86-71
49% 78-80
50% 79-79
TTL
52% 80-74-5
53% 81-71-5
46% 70-83-5
54% 83-70-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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