CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
74-86 | Road
5
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
78-82 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Lodolo
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Soriano
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | 3-6 | 5.04 | 1.47 | 103.2 | 80 |
| Jose Soriano | 12-8 | 3.72 | 1.26 | 174.1 | 167 |
3-6
W-L
12-8
5.04
ERA
Ldr 3.72
1.47
WHIP
Ldr 1.26
103.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 174.1
80
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 167
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
36%
BLUE JAYS
64%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (TOR)
REDS
43%
Book Odds: +133
BLUE JAYS
62%
Book Odds: -161
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3
Toronto
5.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Reds
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CIN @ TOR
1 - 5
Sep 26, 2026
CIN @ TOR
5 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
CIN @ TOR
5 - 6
Sep 3, 2025
TOR @ CIN
13 - 9
Sep 2, 2025
TOR @ CIN
12 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.699
▲
OPS
.692
213
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+51.4% more
Toronto: 3.2
vs
Cincinnati: 2.1
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
Toronto: 0.4
vs
Cincinnati: 0.2
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.8%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Toronto: 31.0%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.8
5
TOR Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.0 / 6.6
10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 9.6
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
9.4 / 13.6
15.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.1
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+133 / -161
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CIN
TOR
CIN
ML
46%
74-87
55%
88-71
50%
80-80
49%
79-81
ATS
56%
90-71
54%
86-73
49%
79-81
50%
80-80
TTL
51%
80-76-5
53%
81-73-5
45%
70-85-5
54%
83-72-5
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