PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
81-79 | Road
7
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
75-85 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bubba Chandler
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Jobe
#21 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler | 8-9 | 4.34 | 1.37 | 151.1 | 138 |
| Jackson Jobe | 2-3 | 3.98 | 1.20 | 40.2 | 43 |
8-9
W-L
2-3
4.34
ERA
Ldr 3.98
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 1.20
151.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
40.2
138 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
43
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
33%
TIGERS
67%
▲ Edge: +13% (DET)
PIRATES
50%
Book Odds: -101
TIGERS
54%
Book Odds: -119
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.5%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.80
Detroit
5.2
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.80
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Tigers
Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Tigers
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
PIT @ DET
4 - 2
Sep 26, 2026
PIT @ DET
3 - 4
Sep 25, 2026
PIT @ DET
7 - 8
Aug 19, 2026
DET @ PIT
3 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
DET @ PIT
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.734
▲
OPS
.720
186
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+53.6% more
Detroit: 5.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.4
Total Bases (L5)
+19.3% more
Detroit: 13.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.7
Hits (L5)
+18.4% more
Detroit: 8.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.3% more
Detroit: 9.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.8
7
DET Score
5.2
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.6 / 7.2
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 7.8
5.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 11.7
17.0 / 11.0
Walks
5.3 / 3.4
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -107
→
-101 / -119
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PIT
DET
PIT
ML
54%
86-73
52%
82-77
54%
87-73
52%
85-78
ATS
64%
101-58
54%
86-73
57%
91-69
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
69-81-9
47%
72-81-6
46%
69-81-10
50%
79-78-6
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