Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Sevilla vs Barcelona Sevilla vs Barcelona

SEVILLASEVILLA

2-0-1  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 3:00 PM ET
Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium

BARCELONABARCELONA

3-0-0  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
SEVILLA
18%
DRAW
21%
BARCELONA
61%
▲ Edge: +17.50% (Sevilla)
11% Book Odds: +850
DRAW --
80% Book Odds: -390
Book Implied: 10.50% / % / 79.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5 38%
Under 3.5 62%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
SEVILLA
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Sevilla)
SevillaSevilla (+1.5) 0 BarcelonaBarcelona (-1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

30.5% / 69.5%

Shots (On Goal)

7(3) / 24(7)

Corners

1 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Sevilla +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Sevilla)

Sevilla By 1 goal

11.1%

Sevilla By 2+ goals

4.8%

Barcelona By 1 goal

26.1%

Barcelona By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
SEVILLA
Book Implied: 1
2
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
1
SEVILLA
Book Implied: 1
4
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Barcelona Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Barcelona Win
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sevilla (+1.75) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Barcelona (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o3.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 Sevilla vs Barcelona 1 - 3
Mar 15, 2026 Barcelona vs Sevilla 5 - 2
Oct 5, 2025 Sevilla vs Barcelona 4 - 1
Feb 9, 2025 Sevilla vs Barcelona 1 - 4
Oct 20, 2024 Barcelona vs Sevilla 5 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +271.4% more
Barcelona: 26.0 vs Sevilla: 7.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Barcelona: 0.0 vs Sevilla: 1.0
Wins (L5) +66.7% more
Barcelona: 5.0 vs Sevilla: 3.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Sevilla: 1.0 vs Barcelona: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Barcelona Score 2.0 3
Sevilla Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Sevilla (Home) vs Barcelona (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Sevilla Share: 33.3% Barcelona Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Sevilla
Barcelona
Sevilla
Barcelona
ML
86% 6-1
100% 7-0
43% 3-4
100% 7-0
ATS
86% 6-1
43% 3-4
54% 3-3
86% 6-1
TTL
43% 3-4
14% 1-6
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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