Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Athletic vs Alavés Athletic vs Alavés

ATHLETICATHLETIC

1-0-2  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 10:15 AM ET
San Mamés

ALAVÉSALAVÉS

2-1-0  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETIC
35%
DRAW
31%
ALAVÉS
35%
▲ Edge: +34.30% (Alavés)
62% Book Odds: -162
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +291
16% Book Odds: +538
Book Implied: 61.80% / 25.60% / 15.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 44%
Under 2.5 56%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ALAVÉS
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Alavés)
AthleticAthletic (-1) 0 AlavésAlavés (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

69.0% / 31.0%

Shots (On Goal)

24(6) / 2(0)

Corners

5 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Alavés 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Alavés)

Athletic Club By 1 goal

21.1%

Athletic Club By 2+ goals

15.9%

Alavés By 1 goal

21.1%

Alavés By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.80
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 0.80
Simulated Score
2
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.80
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 0.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletic Club Win
44% Win Prob
B
Sim Athletic Club Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Alavés (+1) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim Alavés (+1) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 Athletic vs Alavés 0 - 0
Sep 13, 2025 Athletic vs Alavés 0 - 1
May 11, 2025 Athletic vs Alavés 1 - 0
Dec 15, 2024 Alavés vs Athletic 1 - 1
Mar 16, 2024 Athletic vs Alavés 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +14.3% more
Alavés: 8.0 vs Athletic: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Alavés Score 1.0 0
Athletic Club Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Athletic Club (Home) vs Alavés (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Athletic Club Share: 50.0% Alavés Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Athletic Club
Alavés
Athletic Club
Alavés
ML
83% 5-1
29% 2-5
17% 1-5
43% 3-4
ATS
67% 4-2
71% 5-2
33% 2-4
57% 4-3
TTL
67% 4-2
50% 3-3-1
67% 4-2
27% 1-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.