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OSASUNAOSASUNA

2-2-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:00 AM ET
El Sadar

RAYORAYO

2-2-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
OSASUNA
18%
DRAW
21%
RAYO
61%
▲ Edge: +4.10% (Rayo Vallecano)
36% Book Odds: +175
DRAW --
37% Book Odds: +170
Book Implied: 36.40% / % / 37%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 60%
Under 2.5 40%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
RAYO
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Rayo)
OsasunaOsasuna (+0.5) 0 RayoRayo (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

37.2% / 62.8%

Shots (On Goal)

9(3) / 19(2)

Corners

4 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Rayo Vallecano -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Rayo Vallecano)

Osasuna By 1 goal

11.1%

Osasuna By 2+ goals

4.8%

Rayo Vallecano By 1 goal

26.1%

Rayo Vallecano By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
OSASUNA
Book Implied: 1
2
RAYO
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
OSASUNA
Book Implied: 1
0
RAYO
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rayo Vallecano Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Osasuna Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rayo Vallecano (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Osasuna (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.25 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 Osasuna vs Rayo 1 - 1
Jan 24, 2026 Rayo vs Osasuna 1 - 3
Sep 14, 2025 Osasuna vs Rayo 2 - 0
Jan 19, 2025 Osasuna vs Rayo 1 - 1
Sep 16, 2024 Rayo vs Osasuna 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Rayo: 1.0 vs Osasuna: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +80.0% more
Rayo: 9.0 vs Osasuna: 5.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Rayo: 2.0 vs Osasuna: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +8.3% more
Osasuna: 12.0 vs Rayo: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Rayo Vallecano Score 2.0 1
Osasuna Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Osasuna (Home) vs Rayo Vallecano (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Osasuna Share: 33.3% Rayo Vallecano Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano
ML
50% 4-4
43% 3-4
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
ATS
38% 3-5
29% 2-5
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
TTL
62% 5-3
33% 2-4-1
60% 4-3
33% 2-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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