Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Espanyol vs Elche Espanyol vs Elche

ESPANYOLESPANYOL

1-0-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 3:00 PM ET
RCDE Stadium

ELCHEELCHE

0-1-2  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
ESPANYOL
35%
DRAW
31%
ELCHE
35%
▲ Edge: +28.30% (Elche)
56% Book Odds: -125
DRAW --
22% Book Odds: +360
Book Implied: 55.60% / % / 21.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 49%
Under 2.5 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ELCHE
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Elche)
EspanyolEspanyol (-0.5) 0 ElcheElche (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

66.0% / 34.0%

Shots (On Goal)

23(4) / 9(6)

Corners

3 / 3

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Elche 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Elche)

Espanyol By 1 goal

21.1%

Espanyol By 2+ goals

15.9%

Elche By 1 goal

21.1%

Elche By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 1.50
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 1.50
0
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
42% Win Prob
C
Sim Espanyol Loss
80% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Elche (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Espanyol (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 18, 2026 Espanyol vs Elche 1 - 3
Mar 1, 2026 Elche vs Espanyol 2 - 2
Oct 25, 2025 Espanyol vs Elche 1 - 0
Feb 19, 2023 Elche vs Espanyol 0 - 1
Oct 23, 2022 Espanyol vs Elche 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +16.7% more
Elche: 7.0 vs Espanyol: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +114.3% more
Espanyol: 7.0 vs Elche: 15.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Espanyol: 1.0 vs Elche: 0.0
Losses (L5) +33.3% more
Espanyol: 3.0 vs Elche: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Elche Score 1.0 3
Espanyol Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Espanyol (Home) vs Elche (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Espanyol Share: 50.0% Elche Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Espanyol
Elche
Espanyol
Elche
ML
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
ATS
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
TTL
50% 3-3-1
43% 3-4
45% 2-3-1
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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