Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Dodgers SD @ LAD

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

89-70  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Sep 24 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

97-62  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Nick Pivetta
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Pivetta

#27 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tyler Glasnow
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Glasnow

#31 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nick Pivetta 3-2 3.30 1.00 30.0 35
Tyler Glasnow 5-1 3.46 0.96 67.2 87
3-2 W-L 5-1
3.30 Ldr ERA 3.46
1.00 WHIP Ldr 0.96
30.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 67.2
35 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 87
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
42%
📊
DODGERS
58%
▲ Edge: +0.40% (SD)
PADRES 41% Book Odds: +142
DODGERS 63% Book Odds: -172
Book Implied: 41.30% / 63.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 61%
Under 7.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
PadresSD (+1.5) 0 DodgersLAD (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

64.6%

Dodgers Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

15.0%

SD By 3-4 runs

9.2%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3
6
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Dodgers Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Los Angeles LAD
160
Games Played
160
4.39
Runs / Game
▲ 4.95
.243
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.397
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .425
.714
OPS
▲ .763
180
Home Runs
▲ 201
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +84.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.9 vs San Diego: 0.0
Walks (L5) +55.6% more
Los Angeles: 3.9 vs San Diego: 2.5
Hits (L5) +16.6% more
Los Angeles: 10.3 vs San Diego: 8.8
Total Bases (L5) +12.8% more
Los Angeles: 16.2 vs San Diego: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.5 4
LAD Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.3 / 8.8 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 7.4 12.0 / 16.0
Total Bases 16.2 / 14.3 9.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +183 / -225 → +142 / -172 ↓
15%TICKETS85%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
29%TICKETS71%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7.5 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
89-71-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
98-62-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD
(42.5%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
75-81-4
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.2
LAD
72-84-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SD
LAD
SD
ML
55% 88-71
50% 80-80
48% 76-84
51% 81-78
ATS
59% 94-65
53% 85-75
44% 70-90
55% 88-71
TTL
49% 76-79-4
51% 79-76-5
45% 70-86-4
54% 83-70-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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