HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
79-80 | Road
7
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
63-96 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Peter Lambert
#38 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Barnett
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lambert | 8-10 | 3.70 | 1.23 | 151.0 | 147 |
| Mason Barnett | 1-4 | 7.16 | 1.75 | 44.0 | 42 |
8-10
W-L
1-4
3.70 Ldr
ERA
7.16
1.23 Ldr
WHIP
1.75
151.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
44.0
147 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
42
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
61%
ATHLETICS
39%
ASTROS
64%
Book Odds: -179
ATHLETICS
41%
Book Odds: +147
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 11.0
33%
Under 11.0
67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.2%
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
5.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 6.20
Athletics
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 6.20
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
HOU @ ATH
7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026
ATH @ HOU
7 - 6
Aug 22, 2026
ATH @ HOU
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
ATH @ HOU
0 - 4
Jun 7, 2026
ATH @ HOU
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Athletics
ATH
159
Games Played
159
4.45
▲
Runs / Game
4.35
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.414
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.405
.727
▲
OPS
.723
218
▲
Home Runs
194
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+39.0% more
Houston: 10.3
vs
Athletics: 6.3
Home Runs (L5)
+37.3% more
Houston: 1.8
vs
Athletics: 1.1
Walks (L5)
+11.7% more
Houston: 3.0
vs
Athletics: 2.7
Home Runs (Season)
+11.0% more
Houston: 218.0
vs
Athletics: 194.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
5.2
7
ATH Score
3.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.6 / 9.6
11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.8
3.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 10.3
14.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
17.3 / 17.3
23.0 / 25.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.0
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -163 / +135
→
-179 / +147
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 11
→
11
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
79-80-0
(49.7%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
63-96-0
(39.6%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.6%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.8%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
77-73-9
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
82-72-5
O: 53.3% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
HOU
ATH
HOU
ML
58%
93-66
50%
79-79
53%
84-74
46%
73-86
ATS
52%
82-77
55%
87-71
51%
80-78
55%
87-72
TTL
54%
83-71-5
45%
67-82-9
42%
64-89-5
43%
65-85-9
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