CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
74-85 | Road
7
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
93-66 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Singer
#51 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Mahle
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer | 6-15 | 5.67 | 1.56 | 154.0 | 125 |
| Tyler Mahle | 7-10 | 3.81 | 1.22 | 144.0 | 133 |
6-15
W-L
7-10
5.67
ERA
Ldr 3.81
1.56
WHIP
Ldr 1.22
154.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
144.0
125
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 133
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
45%
BRAVES
55%
▲ Edge: +10.90% (CIN)
REDS
34%
Book Odds: +194
BRAVES
71%
Book Odds: -239
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Atlanta
5.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CIN @ ATL
7 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
CIN @ ATL
2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
CIN @ ATL
4 - 0
May 31, 2026
ATL @ CIN
4 - 6
May 30, 2026
ATL @ CIN
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.699
OPS
▲
.757
213
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+21.7% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Hits (L5)
+20.9% more
Atlanta: 7.8
vs
Cincinnati: 6.4
Walks (L5)
+16.2% more
Atlanta: 2.6
vs
Cincinnati: 2.2
Total Bases (L5)
+9.8% more
Atlanta: 13.1
vs
Cincinnati: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.8
7
ATL Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 6.4
12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.3
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 10.9
4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 11.9
17.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.2
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +208 / -258
→
+194 / -239
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CIN
ATL
CIN
ML
46%
77-90
55%
88-71
54%
90-78
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
86-73
52%
87-81
50%
80-80
TTL
53%
83-73-11
53%
81-73-5
49%
76-80-11
54%
83-72-5
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