TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
96-63 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
92-67 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ian Seymour
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cam Schlittler
#31 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Seymour | 9-7 | 4.38 | 1.17 | 127.1 | 155 |
| Cam Schlittler | 14-6 | 1.94 | 0.91 | 190.2 | 234 |
9-7
W-L
14-6
4.38
ERA
Ldr 1.94
1.17
WHIP
Ldr 0.91
127.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 190.2
155
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 234
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
30%
YANKEES
70%
▲ Edge: +10.30% (NYY)
RAYS
45%
Book Odds: +123
YANKEES
60%
Book Odds: -149
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 6.0
77%
Under 6.0
23%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
15.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.5%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.20
New York
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.20
New York
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Yankees
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TB @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 22, 2026
TB @ NYY
6 - 1
Jul 9, 2026
NYY @ TB
12 - 4
Jul 8, 2026
NYY @ TB
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
New York
NYY
159
Games Played
159
4.52
Runs / Game
▲
4.60
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.311
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.410
.727
▲
OPS
.721
165
Home Runs
▲
223
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+183.0% more
New York: 2.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+100.8% more
New York: 17.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 8.5
Hits (L5)
+59.4% more
New York: 8.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 5.4
Home Runs (Season)
+35.2% more
New York: 223.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 165.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.8
4
NYY Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.5
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 5.4
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.5 / 0.7
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 8.7
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
17.1 / 8.5
15.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.4
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -157
→
+123 / -149
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
6
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
96-63-0
(60.4%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-:
NYY
92-67-0
(57.9%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-:
NYY
(50.9%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
73-81-5
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
74-80-5
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TB
NYY
TB
ML
47%
73-82
59%
92-65
52%
81-74
59%
93-64
ATS
59%
91-64
59%
93-64
53%
82-73
54%
85-72
TTL
52%
77-72-6
47%
70-79-8
52%
77-71-6
51%
75-73-9
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