CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
83-76 | Road
1
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
85-74 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Espino
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ranger Suarez
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Espino | 0-0 | 4.73 | 1.43 | 13.1 | 22 |
| Ranger Suarez | 8-4 | 3.27 | 1.20 | 143.1 | 135 |
0-0
W-L
8-4
4.73
ERA
Ldr 3.27
1.43
WHIP
Ldr 1.20
13.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 143.1
22
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 135
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
42%
RED SOX
58%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (BOS)
GUARDIANS
48%
Book Odds: +107
RED SOX
56%
Book Odds: -129
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 6.5
73%
Under 6.5
27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
9.5%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.8
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.50
Boston
5.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.50
Boston
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CLE @ BOS
1 - 0
Sep 23, 2026
CLE @ BOS
0 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
CLE @ BOS
3 - 2
May 31, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 4
May 30, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.380
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.696
▲
OPS
.409
162
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.0% more
Boston: 10.0
vs
Cleveland: 8.4
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+76.1% more
Cleveland: 4.2
vs
Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+36.5% more
Cleveland: 3.1
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.8
1
BOS Score
5.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.5
2.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 8.4
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 11.7
2.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.0 / 3.1
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -132
→
+107 / -129
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
6.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
89-80-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
82-86-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CLE
BOS
CLE
ML
50%
80-80
54%
89-76
47%
76-87
49%
81-85
ATS
58%
93-67
58%
95-70
48%
79-84
58%
96-70
TTL
46%
72-83-5
55%
90-73-2
47%
74-83-6
44%
71-92-2
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