MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
100-59 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
87-72 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryse Wilson
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Painter
#24 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryse Wilson | 0-0 | 3.67 | 1.28 | 34.1 | 30 |
| Andrew Painter | 3-10 | 5.59 | 1.42 | 120.2 | 107 |
0-0
W-L
3-10
3.67 Ldr
ERA
5.59
1.28 Ldr
WHIP
1.42
34.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 120.2
30
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 107
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
42%
PHILLIES
58%
▲ Edge: +0.20% (PHI)
BREWERS
47%
Book Odds: +113
PHILLIES
58%
Book Odds: -136
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5
56%
Under 7.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
MIL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
3.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Brewers
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIL @ PHI
5 - 1
Sep 23, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 6
Jun 14, 2026
PHI @ MIL
0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
PHI @ MIL
9 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.743
▲
OPS
.724
154
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+67.8% more
Philadelphia: 4.6
vs
Milwaukee: 2.7
Hits (L5)
+9.6% more
Philadelphia: 7.1
vs
Milwaukee: 6.5
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Milwaukee: 40.3%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.1% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
3.5
5
PHI Score
5.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.1 / 6.5
4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 12.1
6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 10.5
5.0 / 16.0
Walks
4.6 / 2.7
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -145 / +120
→
+113 / -136
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
110-60-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(53.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
76-89-5
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIL
PHI
MIL
ML
59%
97-67
61%
101-65
49%
80-84
52%
86-80
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
94-72
51%
83-81
49%
81-85
TTL
57%
88-67-9
41%
65-93-8
51%
78-76-9
51%
80-78-8
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