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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

100-59  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, Sep 24 • 6:05 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

87-72  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Bryse Wilson
STARTING PITCHER

Bryse Wilson

#41 | RP
@
Andrew Painter
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Painter

#24 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryse Wilson 0-0 3.67 1.28 34.1 30
Andrew Painter 3-10 5.59 1.42 120.2 107
0-0 W-L 3-10
3.67 Ldr ERA 5.59
1.28 Ldr WHIP 1.42
34.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 120.2
30 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 107
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
42%
📊
PHILLIES
58%
▲ Edge: +0.20% (PHI)
BREWERS 47% Book Odds: +113
PHILLIES 58% Book Odds: -136
Book Implied: 46.90% / 57.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 56%
Under 7.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
BrewersMIL (+1.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

64.6%

Phillies Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

MIL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Brewers Win
61% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Brewers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 MIL @ PHI 5 - 1
Sep 23, 2026 MIL @ PHI 4 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 MIL @ PHI 4 - 6
Jun 14, 2026 PHI @ MIL 0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026 PHI @ MIL 9 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Philadelphia PHI
159
Games Played
159
5.13 ▲
Runs / Game
4.43
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.240
.340 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.312
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.742 ▲
OPS
.707
152
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +67.8% more
Philadelphia: 4.6 vs Milwaukee: 2.7
Home Runs (Season) +18.4% more
Philadelphia: 180.0 vs Milwaukee: 152.0
Hits (L5) +9.6% more
Philadelphia: 7.1 vs Milwaukee: 6.5
Home Runs (L5) +59.8% more
Milwaukee: 1.0 vs Philadelphia: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 3.5 5
PHI Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.1 / 6.5 4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 12.1 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 10.5 5.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.6 / 2.7 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -145 / +120 → +113 / -136 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
78%TICKETS22%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
100-59-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
PHI
87-72-0 (54.7%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.2%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
PHI
(42.1%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
71-84-4
O: 45.8% / U: 54.2% Total +/-: +0.8
PHI
74-76-9
O: 49.3% / U: 50.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIL
PHI
MIL
ML
58% 92-66
63% 97-58
49% 78-80
51% 79-76
ATS
65% 102-56
59% 91-64
50% 79-79
48% 75-80
TTL
56% 84-66-8
41% 60-88-7
50% 74-75-8
51% 75-73-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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