ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
85-74 | Road
12
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
57-102 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Gordon
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 15-7 | 2.89 | 1.23 | 183.2 | 140 |
| Tanner Gordon | 1-5 | 6.01 | 1.55 | 100.1 | 84 |
15-7
W-L
1-5
2.89 Ldr
ERA
6.01
1.23 Ldr
WHIP
1.55
183.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
100.1
140 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
84
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
63%
ROCKIES
37%
DIAMONDBACKS
67%
Book Odds: -199
ROCKIES
38%
Book Odds: +163
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
10.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 10.0
55%
Under 10.0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
COL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
COL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.80
Colorado
4.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.80
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o10.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
ARI @ COL
12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026
ARI @ COL
5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
ARI @ COL
7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
COL @ ARI
6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
COL @ ARI
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Colorado
COL
159
Games Played
159
4.51
Runs / Game
▲
4.65
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.323
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.718
OPS
▲
.740
162
Home Runs
▲
175
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+31.3% more
Arizona: 15.8
vs
Colorado: 10.8
Hits (L5)
+29.1% more
Arizona: 9.6
vs
Colorado: 6.8
Home Runs (L5)
+28.9% more
Arizona: 1.1
vs
Colorado: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+8.0% more
Arizona: 0.7
vs
Colorado: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
6.0
12
COL Score
4.5
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 9.6
17.0 / 18.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.0
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 15.8
30.0 / 33.0
Walks
2.1 / 1.9
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -162 / +134
→
-199 / +163
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 11
→
10
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
85-74-0
(53.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
57-102-0
(35.9%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.6%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
68-85-6
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
COL
76-78-5
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
ARI
COL
ARI
ML
60%
95-63
54%
85-73
54%
86-72
54%
84-73
ATS
60%
95-63
56%
89-69
52%
82-76
55%
86-71
TTL
59%
90-62-6
51%
77-73-8
50%
76-76-6
48%
70-77-9
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