Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Rangers NYM @ TEX

NEW YORK

METSNYM

73-86  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Sep 24 • 2:35 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

79-80  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Zac Thornton

#49 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kumar Rocker
STARTING PITCHER

Kumar Rocker

#80 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zac Thornton 5-5 3.40 1.15 79.1 59
Kumar Rocker 5-11 4.47 1.42 143.0 134
5-5 W-L 5-11
3.40 Ldr ERA 4.47
1.15 Ldr WHIP 1.42
79.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 143.0
59 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 134
AI Model Win Probability
METS
59%
📊
RANGERS
41%
▲ Edge: +11.90% (NYM)
METS 47% Book Odds: +113
RANGERS 58% Book Odds: -136
Book Implied: 46.90% / 57.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 56%
Under 8.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (New York)
MetsNYM (+1.5) 0 RangersTEX (-1.5)
New York Mets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

63.7%

Rangers Cover

36.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.2%

TEX By 1-2 runs

15.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
3.8
TEXAS
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
6
TEXAS
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 NYM @ TEX 1 - 3
Sep 23, 2026 NYM @ TEX 7 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 NYM @ TEX 6 - 3
Sep 14, 2025 TEX @ NYM 2 - 5
Sep 13, 2025 TEX @ NYM 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.705
OPS
▲ .713
204 ▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +78.0% more
New York: 1.5 vs Texas: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +53.3% more
New York: 15.2 vs Texas: 7.1
Hits (L5) +43.1% more
New York: 9.2 vs Texas: 5.3
Walks (L5) +31.6% more
New York: 4.1 vs Texas: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.2 1
TEX Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.3 / 9.2 7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.5 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 7.0 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 7.1 / 15.2 14.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.8 / 4.1 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -107 / -113 → +113 / -136 ↑
44%TICKETS56%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8.5 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
NYM
TEX
NYM
ML
53% 86-76
50% 79-80
57% 91-70
48% 76-83
ATS
57% 92-70
58% 93-66
61% 98-63
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 78-70-14
55% 80-66-13
55% 81-66-14
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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