MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
78-81 | Road
1
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
88-71 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips | 5-6 | 3.45 | 1.31 | 122.2 | 99 |
| Matthew Boyd | 9-5 | 4.06 | 1.22 | 119.2 | 93 |
5-6
W-L
9-5
3.45 Ldr
ERA
4.06
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 1.22
122.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
119.2
99 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
93
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
35%
CUBS
66%
MARLINS
36%
Book Odds: +179
CUBS
69%
Book Odds: -219
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
70%
Under 7.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.80
Chicago
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Miami
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.80
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cubs
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIA @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
MIA @ CHC
3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
MIA @ CHC
8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026
CHC @ MIA
3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026
CHC @ MIA
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.727
▲
OPS
.374
168
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.7% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+35.3%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+25.5%
Miami: 40.0%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.8
1
CHC Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 9.2
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 10.5
5.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 13.6
11.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.2
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175
→
+179 / -219
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIA
CHC
MIA
ML
58%
93-68
48%
78-84
51%
82-79
55%
88-72
ATS
61%
97-63-1
56%
91-71
47%
75-85-1
54%
86-74
TTL
52%
81-74-6
56%
88-69-5
46%
72-83-6
53%
82-73-5
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