Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Cubs MIA @ CHC

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

78-81  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Sep 24 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

88-71  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Phillips 5-6 3.45 1.31 122.2 99
Matthew Boyd 9-5 4.06 1.22 119.2 93
5-6 W-L 9-5
3.45 Ldr ERA 4.06
1.31 WHIP Ldr 1.22
122.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 119.2
99 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 93
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
34%
📊
CUBS
66%
MARLINS 36% Book Odds: +179
CUBS 69% Book Odds: -219
Book Implied: 35.80% / 68.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0 70%
Under 7.0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (+1.5) 0 CubsCHC (-1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

63.7%

Cubs Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.80
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.80
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Cubs Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 MIA @ CHC 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 MIA @ CHC 3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 MIA @ CHC 8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026 CHC @ MIA 3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026 CHC @ MIA 6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Chicago CHC
158
Games Played
158
4.45
Runs / Game
▲ 5.31
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲ .251
.327
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .339
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .430
.727
OPS
▲ .769
163
Home Runs
▲ 217
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +33.1% more
Chicago: 217.0 vs Miami: 163.0
Runs per Game (Season) +19.3% more
Chicago: 5.3 vs Miami: 4.5
OPS (Season) +4.2%
Chicago: 76.9% vs Miami: 72.7%
Slugging Pct (Season) +3.0%
Chicago: 43.0% vs Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.8 1
CHC Score 5.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 9.2 6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 10.5 5.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 13.6 11.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.2 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175 → +179 / -219 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
18%TICKETS82%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 7
82%TICKETS18%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
78-81-0 (49.1%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
88-71-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(50.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(47.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
81-74-4
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
88-68-3
O: 56.4% / U: 43.6% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIA
CHC
MIA
ML
57% 89-68
48% 76-83
52% 81-75
55% 86-71
ATS
60% 93-63-1
57% 90-69
48% 74-81-1
54% 85-72
TTL
52% 79-72-6
56% 87-68-4
47% 70-80-6
53% 81-72-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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