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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

82-77  |  Road

9
FINAL
Thu, Sep 24 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

68-91  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
David Sandlin
STARTING PITCHER

David Sandlin

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
Randy Dobnak
STARTING PITCHER

Randy Dobnak

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Sandlin 2-2 6.29 1.28 34.1 33
Randy Dobnak 3-4 3.08 1.33 73.0 48
2-2 W-L 3-4
6.29 ERA Ldr 3.08
1.28 Ldr WHIP 1.33
34.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 73.0
33 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 48
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
35%
📊
ROYALS
65%
▲ Edge: +18.60% (KC)
WHITE SOX 59% Book Odds: -142
ROYALS 46% Book Odds: +118
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0 49%
Under 9.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Kansas City)
White SoxCHW (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Kansas City Royals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

36.3%

Royals Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

CHW By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

9.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
5.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim White Sox Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CHW @ KC 9 - 1
Sep 23, 2026 CHW @ KC 4 - 5
Sep 22, 2026 CHW @ KC 14 - 11
Jun 28, 2026 KC @ CHW 5 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 KC @ CHW 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Kansas City KC
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826 ▲
OPS
.718
1
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16900.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Hits (L5) +17.9% more
Kansas City: 10.7 vs Chicago: 9.1
Walks (L5) +39.1% more
Chicago: 3.8 vs Kansas City: 2.3
Home Runs (L5) +29.0% more
Chicago: 1.3 vs Kansas City: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.8 9
KC Score 5.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.7 / 9.1 7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 9.0 10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 15.5 / 14.7 13.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.8 1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -107 → -142 / +118 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
76%TICKETS24%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 9 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-81-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
97-70-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +0.9
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CHW
KC
CHW
ML
55% 89-72
49% 82-87
56% 90-70
56% 94-75
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 100-69
58% 93-67
55% 93-76
TTL
58% 90-64-7
58% 97-70-2
54% 83-70-7
51% 85-82-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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