ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
77-82 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
81-78 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 10-5 | 3.65 | 1.34 | 138.0 | 129 |
| Paul Skenes | 10-11 | 3.91 | 1.13 | 168.0 | 192 |
10-5
W-L
10-11
3.65 Ldr
ERA
3.91
1.34
WHIP
Ldr 1.13
138.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 168.0
129
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 192
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
48%
PIRATES
52%
▲ Edge: +5.90% (STL)
CARDINALS
42%
Book Odds: +138
PIRATES
63%
Book Odds: -167
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 7.0
73%
Under 7.0
27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 2.80
Pittsburgh
5.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 2.80
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.691
OPS
▲
.734
167
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+68.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.2
vs
St. Louis: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+38.4% more
Pittsburgh: 13.5
vs
St. Louis: 9.7
Home Runs (Season)
+11.4% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.5% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.0
1
PIT Score
5.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.3 / 7.1
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 10.7
8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 9.7
8.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.9
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -121
→
+138 / -167
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
STL
PIT
STL
ML
52%
82-77
53%
85-74
52%
85-78
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
89-70
50%
81-82
53%
85-76
TTL
47%
72-81-6
46%
68-81-10
50%
79-78-6
50%
76-75-10
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