Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Málaga vs Villarreal Málaga vs Villarreal

MÁLAGAMÁLAGA

0-0  |  Home

1
FINAL
Thu, Sep 17 • 3:30 PM ET
La Rosaleda

VILLARREALVILLARREAL

0-2-1  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
MÁLAGA
18%
DRAW
21%
VILLARREAL
61%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (Villarreal)
29% Book Odds: +241
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +260
46% Book Odds: +119
Book Implied: 29.30% / 27.80% / 45.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 44%
Under 2.75 56%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
VILLARREAL
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Villarreal)
MálagaMálaga (+0.2) 0 VillarrealVillarreal (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

37.1% / 62.9%

Shots (On Goal)

5(1) / 16(7)

Corners

4 / 8

Cards (Y/R)

5/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Villarreal -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Villarreal)

Málaga By 1 goal

11.1%

Málaga By 2+ goals

4.8%

Villarreal By 1 goal

26.1%

Villarreal By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 1.20
2
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 1.20
2
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Villarreal Win
51% Win Prob
A
Sim Villarreal Win
62% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Villarreal (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Villarreal (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 Málaga vs Villarreal 1 - 3
Apr 1, 2018 Málaga vs Villarreal 1 - 0
Nov 5, 2017 Villarreal vs Málaga 2 - 0
Feb 12, 2017 Villarreal vs Málaga 1 - 1
Sep 10, 2016 Málaga vs Villarreal 0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +250.0% more
Villarreal: 7.0 vs Málaga: 2.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Málaga: 3.0 vs Villarreal: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Málaga: 2.0 vs Villarreal: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +37.5% more
Málaga: 8.0 vs Villarreal: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Villarreal Score 2.0 3
Málaga Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Málaga (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Málaga Share: 33.3% Villarreal Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Málaga
Villarreal
Málaga
Villarreal
ML
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
ATS
43% 3-4
86% 6-1
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
TTL
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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