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DETROIT

LIONSDET

2-2  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 8:20 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

2-2  |  Home

32
Key Game
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
@
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
Player
Jack Fox None-None
Sam Martin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
58%
📊
PANTHERS
42%
▲ Edge: +6.90% (CAR)
LIONS 69% Book Odds: -225
PANTHERS 35% Book Odds: +185
Book Implied: 69.20% / 35.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.6
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +14.1 (Over)
Over 52.5 85%
Under 52.5 15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CAROLINA
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Carolina)
LionsDET (-4.5) 0 PanthersCAR (+4.5)
Carolina Panthers (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

47.2%

Panthers Cover

52.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CAR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)

DET By 1-6 points

16.7%

DET By 7-13 points

16.1%

CAR By 1-6 points

16.1%

CAR By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
33.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 28.50
32.8
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
25
DETROIT
Book Implied: 28.50
22
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Lions Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Sim Panthers (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 66.6
A
Sim u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 DET @ CAR 26 - 32
Oct 8, 2023 CAR @ DET 24 - 42
Dec 24, 2022 DET @ CAR 23 - 37
Nov 22, 2020 DET @ CAR 0 - 20
Nov 18, 2018 CAR @ DET 19 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.2% more
Detroit: 123.5 vs Carolina: 99.8
First Downs (L5) +13.7% more
Detroit: 23.7 vs Carolina: 20.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Detroit: 0.5 vs Carolina: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +47.0% more
Carolina: 1.1 vs Detroit: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 33.8 26
CAR Score 32.8 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 23.7 28.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 255.4 / 250.9 318.0 / 406.0
Rushing Yards 99.8 / 123.5 127.0 / 46.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 355.2 / 374.4 445.0 / 452.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.8 6.2 / 6.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -162 / +136 → -225 / +185 ↓
88%TICKETS12%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -4.5 / +4.5 ↓
63%TICKETS37%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 52.5 ↑
70%TICKETS30%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
DET
CAR
DET
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1-1
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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