Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Seahawks LAC @ SEA

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

0-4  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 4:25 PM ET
Lumen Field
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

SEAHAWKSSEA

3-1  |  Home

30
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
Michael Dickson
KEY GAME

Michael Dickson

#4 | Punter
Player
JK Scott None-None
Michael Dickson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
36%
📊
SEAHAWKS
64%
▲ Edge: +9.70% (LAC)
CHARGERS 27% Book Odds: +275
SEAHAWKS 78% Book Odds: -345
Book Implied: 26.70% / 77.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.0
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +7.5 (Under)
Over 42.5 28%
Under 42.5 72%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Seattle)
ChargersLAC (+7) 0 SeahawksSEA (-7)
Seattle Seahawks (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

26.0%

Seahawks Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SEA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

LAC By 1-6 points

11.5%

LAC By 7-13 points

8.0%

SEA By 1-6 points

15.7%

SEA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
13
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 17.80
22
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 24.80
Simulated Score
21
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 17.80
24
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 24.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seahawks Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Seahawks Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Seahawks (-7) Push
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Chargers (+7) Push
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 35.0
A
Sim o42.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 LAC @ SEA 23 - 30
Oct 23, 2022 SEA @ LAC 37 - 23
Nov 4, 2018 LAC @ SEA 25 - 17
Sep 14, 2014 SEA @ LAC 21 - 30
Sep 26, 2010 LAC @ SEA 20 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +42.6% more
Seattle: 274.6 vs Los Angeles: 192.5
First Downs (L5) +18.4% more
Seattle: 21.5 vs Los Angeles: 18.2
Total Yards (L5) +14.9% more
Seattle: 369.6 vs Los Angeles: 321.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.3% more
Seattle: 6.1 vs Los Angeles: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 13.0 23
SEA Score 22.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 18.2 19.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 274.6 / 192.5 148.0 / 154.0
Rushing Yards 95.0 / 129.1 138.0 / 147.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 369.6 / 321.6 286.0 / 301.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.8 1.0 / 4.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.3 4.9 / 4.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +145 / -175 → +275 / -345 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +7 / -7 ↑
42%TICKETS58%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 42.5 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
SEA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
SEA Advantage
1-1-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
SEA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
LAC
SEA
LAC
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 1-1-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 1-1-2
0% 0-3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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