Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ 49ers DEN @ SF

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

2-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 4:25 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

4-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
Corliss Waitman
KEY GAME

Corliss Waitman

#15 | Punter
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
Corliss Waitman None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
42%
📊
49ERS
58%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (DEN)
BRONCOS 42% Book Odds: +140
49ERS 62% Book Odds: -166
Book Implied: 41.70% / 62.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.5 (Under)
Over 48.5 30%
Under 48.5 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Francisco)
BroncosDEN (+3) 0 49ersSF (-3)
San Francisco 49ers (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

36.0%

49ers Cover

64.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SF -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

DEN By 1-6 points

14.2%

DEN By 7-13 points

11.3%

SF By 1-6 points

16.9%

SF By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18.5
DENVER
Book Implied: 22.80
23.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 25.80
Simulated Score
24
DENVER
Book Implied: 22.80
21
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 25.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI 49ers Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Broncos Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI 49ers (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim Broncos (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
A
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 DEN @ SF 14 - 24
Sep 25, 2022 SF @ DEN 10 - 11
Dec 9, 2018 DEN @ SF 14 - 20
Oct 19, 2014 SF @ DEN 17 - 42
Oct 31, 2010 DEN @ SF 16 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.6% more
San Francisco: 131.1 vs Denver: 88.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +36.0% more
San Francisco: 7.0 vs Denver: 5.2
Total Yards (L5) +23.1% more
San Francisco: 383.1 vs Denver: 311.1
First Downs (L5) +17.2% more
San Francisco: 22.3 vs Denver: 19.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 18.5 14
SF Score 23.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 19.1 20.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 252.0 / 222.3 218.0 / 214.0
Rushing Yards 131.1 / 88.8 140.0 / 82.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 383.1 / 311.1 358.0 / 296.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 7.0 / 5.2 5.5 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +140 / -166 ↑
15%TICKETS85%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
43%TICKETS57%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 48.5 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
SF Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
SF
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.6
SF
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
DEN
SF
DEN
ML
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
57% 4-3
ATS
14% 1-6
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
TTL
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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