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KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

4-0  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 4:25 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

3-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Harrison Butker
KEY GAME

Harrison Butker

#7 | Place kicker
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
Harrison Butker None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
67%
📊
RAIDERS
33%
CHIEFS 69% Book Odds: -225
RAIDERS 35% Book Odds: +185
Book Implied: 69.20% / 35.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.5
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 47.5 38%
Under 47.5 62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
-5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
ChiefsKC (-5.5) 0 RaidersLV (+5.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

67.9%

Raiders Cover

32.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KC -6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-6 points

16.6%

KC By 7-13 points

19.1%

LV By 1-6 points

13.2%

LV By 7-13 points

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
25
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 26.50
18.5
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 21
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 26.50
19
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 21
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chiefs Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Chiefs Win
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chiefs (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.5
C
Sim Chiefs (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.5
B
Sim u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 KC @ LV 30 - 27
Jan 4, 2026 KC @ LV 12 - 14
Oct 19, 2025 LV @ KC 0 - 31
Nov 29, 2024 LV @ KC 17 - 19
Oct 27, 2024 KC @ LV 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.9% more
Kansas City: 130.0 vs Las Vegas: 89.8
Total Yards (L5) +26.0% more
Kansas City: 382.2 vs Las Vegas: 282.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +24.0% more
Kansas City: 6.1 vs Las Vegas: 4.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +23.5% more
Kansas City: 252.2 vs Las Vegas: 193.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 25.0 30
LV Score 18.5 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 21.1 28.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 193.0 / 252.2 365.0 / 210.0
Rushing Yards 89.8 / 130.0 72.0 / 189.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.41
Total Yards 282.8 / 382.2 437.0 / 399.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 6.1 5.6 / 6.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -230 / +190 → -225 / +185 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5.5 / +5.5 → -5.5 / +5.5
54%TICKETS46%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 47.5 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
LV
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
KC
LV
KC
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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