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MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

0-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 4:05 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

4-0  |  Home

15
Key Game
Bradley Pinion
KEY GAME

Bradley Pinion

#48 | Punter
@
Johnny Hekker
KEY GAME

Johnny Hekker

#5 | Punter
Player
Bradley Pinion None-None
Johnny Hekker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
26%
📊
VIKINGS
74%
▲ Edge: +7.40% (MIA)
DOLPHINS 19% Book Odds: +435
VIKINGS 85% Book Odds: -545
Book Implied: 18.70% / 84.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
38.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +12.5 (Over)
Over 38.5 83%
Under 38.5 17%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Miami)
DolphinsMIA (+10) 0 VikingsMIN (-10)
Miami Dolphins (+10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

61.2%

Vikings Cover

38.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

14.7%

MIA By 7-13 points

12.1%

MIN By 1-6 points

17.0%

MIN By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 14.20
27.5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 24.20
Simulated Score
24
MIAMI
Book Implied: 14.20
17
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 24.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Vikings Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Dolphins Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Dolphins (+10) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
A
Sim Dolphins (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Sim o38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 MIA @ MIN 10 - 15
Oct 16, 2022 MIN @ MIA 24 - 16
Dec 16, 2018 MIA @ MIN 17 - 41
Dec 21, 2014 MIN @ MIA 35 - 37
Sep 19, 2010 MIA @ MIN 14 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.0% more
Miami: 1.2 vs Minnesota: 0.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +19.9% more
Miami: 187.5 vs Minnesota: 150.3
First Downs (L5) +16.6% more
Miami: 16.0 vs Minnesota: 13.3
Total Yards (L5) +16.5% more
Miami: 296.5 vs Minnesota: 247.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 23.5 10
MIN Score 27.5 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.3 / 16.0 20.0 / 8.0
Net Passing Yards 150.3 / 187.5 213.0 / 77.0
Rushing Yards 97.3 / 109.0 123.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards 247.6 / 296.5 336.0 / 198.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.5 / 5.1 4.7 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +320 / -410 → +435 / -545 ↑
4%TICKETS96%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5 → +10 / -10 ↑
26%TICKETS74%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 38.5 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
MIA
MIN
MIA
ML
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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